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The Return and Risk for Portfolios The Efficient Set for Two Assets The Efficient Set for Many Securities Diversification: An Example Riskless Borrowing and Lending Market Equilibrium Relationship between Risk and Expected Return (CAPM) Summary and Conclusions
What is the return on an investment that costs $1,000 and is sold after 1 year for $1,100? Dollar return: $ Received - $ Invested $1,100 $1,000 = $100.
Probability distribution
Stock X
Stock Y
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15
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Individual Securities
r = i Pi . r
i =1
( ri r ) 2 Pi .
Standard deviation measures the stand-alone risk of an investment. The larger the standard deviation, the higher the probability that returns will be far below the expected return. Coefficient of variation is an alternative measure of stand-alone risk.
Consider the following two risky asset world. There is a 1/3 chance of each state of the economy and the only assets are a stock fund and a bond fund.
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Scenario
Recession Normal Boom Expected return Variance Standard Deviation
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Scenario
Recession Normal Boom Expected return Variance Standard Deviation
Scenario
Recession Normal Boom Expected return Variance Standard Deviation
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Scenario
Recession Normal Boom Expected return Variance Standard Deviation
Scenario
Recession Normal Boom Expected return Variance Standard Deviation
Scenario
Recession Normal Boom Expected return Variance Standard Deviation
Scenario
Recession Normal Boom Expected return Variance Standard Deviation
Scenario
Recession Normal Boom Expected return Variance Standard Deviation
14.3% = 0.0205
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Scenario
Recession Normal Boom Expected return Variance Standard Deviation
Note that stocks have a higher expected return than bonds and higher risk. Let us turn now to the risk-return tradeoff of a portfolio that is 50% invested in bonds and 50% invested in stocks.
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The rate of return on the portfolio is a weighted average of the returns on the stocks and bonds in the portfolio:
rP = wB rB + wS rS
The rate of return on the portfolio is a weighted average of the returns on the stocks and bonds in the portfolio:
The rate of return on the portfolio is a weighted average of the returns on the stocks and bonds in the portfolio:
The expected rate of return on the portfolio is a weighted average of the expected returns on the securities in the portfolio. E (rP ) = wB E (rB ) + wS E (rS )
The variance of the rate of return on the two risky assets portfolio is
2 P = (wB B ) 2 + (wS S ) 2 + 2(wB B )(wS S ) BS
where BS is the correlation coefficient between the returns on the stock and bond funds.
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Observe the decrease in risk that diversification offers. An equally weighted portfolio (50% in stocks and 50% in bonds) has less risk than stocks or bonds held in isolation.
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Risk
8.2% 7.0% 5.9% 4.8% 3.7% 2.6% 1.4% 0.4% 0.9% 2.0% 3.08% 4.2% 5.3% 6.4% 7.6% 8.7% 9.8% 10.9% 12.1% 13.2% 14.3%
Return
7.0% 7.2% 7.4% 7.6% 7.8% 8.0% 8.2% 8.4% 8.6% 8.8% 9.00% 9.2% 9.4% 9.6% 9.8% 10.0% 10.2% 10.4% 10.6% 10.8% 11.0%
P o r t f o lo R is k a n d R e t u r n C o m b in a t
1 2 .0 % 1 1 .0 % 1 0 .0 % 9 .0 % 8 .0 % 7 .0 % 6 .0 % 5 .0 % 0 .0 % 5 .0 %
Portfolio Return
P o r t f o lio R is k ( s t a n d a r d d e v ia t
We can consider other portfolio weights besides 50% in stocks and 50% in bonds
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Risk
8.2% 8.2% 7.0% 7.0% 5.9% 5.9% 4.8% 4.8% 3.7% 3.7% 2.6% 2.6% 1.4% 1.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.9% 0.9% 2.0% 2.0% 3.1% 3.1% 4.2% 4.2% 5.3% 5.3% 6.4% 6.4% 7.6% 7.6% 8.7% 8.7% 9.8% 9.8% 10.9% 10.9% 12.1% 12.1% 13.2% 13.2% 14.3% 14.3%
Return
7.0% 7.0% 7.2% 7.2% 7.4% 7.4% 7.6% 7.6% 7.8% 7.8% 8.0% 8.0% 8.2% 8.2% 8.4% 8.4% 8.6% 8.6% 8.8% 8.8% 9.0% 9.0% 9.2% 9.2% 9.4% 9.4% 9.6% 9.6% 9.8% 9.8% 10.0% 10.0% 10.2% 10.2% 10.4% 10.4% 10.6% 10.6% 10.8% 10.8% 11.0% 11.0%
5 .0% 0 . 0 % 2 . 0 % 4 . 0 % 6 . 0 % 8 . 0 % 1 0 . 0 %1 2 . 0 %1 4 . 0 %1 6 .0 %
We can consider other portfolio weights besides 50% in stocks and 50% in bonds
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Risk
8.2% 7.0% 5.9% 4.8% 3.7% 2.6% 1.4% 0.4% 0.9% 2.0% 3.1% 4.2% 5.3% 6.4% 7.6% 8.7% 9.8% 10.9% 12.1% 13.2% 14.3%
Return
7.0% 7.2% 7.4% 7.6% 7.8% 8.0% 8.2% 8.4% 8.6% 8.8% 9.0% 9.2% 9.4% 9.6% 9.8% 10.0% 10.2% 10.4% 10.6% 10.8% 11.0%
P o rt fo lo R isk a n d R e t u rn C o m b in a t i
1 2.0 %
Portfolio Return
5.0% 0 . 0 % 2 .0 % 4 . 0 % 6 . 0 % 8 . 0 % 1 0 . 0 %1 2 . 0 %1 4 . 0 %1 6 . 0 %
Note that some portfolios are better than others. They have higher returns for the same level of risk or less. These compromise the efficient frontier.
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100% bonds
= 1.0 = 0.2
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Portfolio Risk/Return Two Securities: Correlation Effects Relationship depends on correlation coefficient -1.0 < < +1.0 The smaller the correlation, the greater the risk reduction potential If = +1.0, no risk reduction is possible
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What would happen to the risk of portfolio as more randomly selected stocks were added?
p would decrease because the added
stocks would not be perfectly correlated, but rp would remain relatively constant.
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Prob. Large 2
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Return
1 35% ; 2 20%.
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Portfolio Risk as a Function of the Number of Stocks in the Portfolio In a large portfolio the variance terms are effectively diversified away, but the covariance terms are not. Diversifiable Risk; Nonsystematic Risk; Firm Specific Risk; Unique Risk Portfolio risk Nondiversifiable risk; Systematic Risk; Market Risk n Thus diversification can eliminate some, but not all of the risk of individual securities.
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Stand-alone risk
Market risk
Diversifiable risk
Market risk is that part of a securitys stand-alone risk that cannot be eliminated by diversification. Firm-specific, or diversifiable, risk is that part of a securitys stand-alone risk that can be eliminated by diversification.
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Can an investor holding one stock earn a return commensurate with its risk? No. Rational investors will minimize risk by holding portfolios. They bear only market risk, so prices and returns reflect this lower risk. The one-stock investor bears higher (stand-alone) risk, so the return is less than that required by the risk.
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Conclusions As more stocks are added, each new stock has a smaller risk-reducing impact on the portfolio. In general p falls very slowly after about 40 stocks are included. By forming well-diversified portfolios, investors can eliminate part of the riskiness of owning a single stock.
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Individual Assets
Consider a world with many risky assets; we can still identify the opportunity set of riskreturn combinations of various portfolios.
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Given the opportunity set we can identify the minimum variance portfolio.
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The section of the opportunity set above the minimum variance portfolio is the efficient frontier.
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return
100% stocks
rf
100% bonds
In addition to stocks and bonds, consider a world that also has risk-free securities like T-bills
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return
L M C
Balanced fund
100% stocks
rf
100% bonds
Now investors can allocate their money across the T-bills and a balanced mutual fund
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efficient frontier
rf
With a risk-free asset available and the efficient frontier identified, we choose the capital allocation line with the steepest slope
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Market Equilibrium
return
L CM
efficient frontier
M rf
P
With the capital allocation line identified, all investors choose a point along the linesome combination of the risk-free asset and the market portfolio M. In a world with homogeneous expectations, M is the same for all investors.
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M rf
The Separation Property states that the market portfolio, M, is the same for all investorsthey can separate their risk aversion from their 44 choice of the market portfolio.
M rf
P Investor risk aversion is revealed in their choice of where to stay along the capital allocation linenot in their choice of the line.
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Market Equilibrium
return
L M C
Balanced fund 100% stocks
rf
100% bonds
Just where the investor chooses along the Capital Asset Line depends on his risk tolerance. The big point though is that all investors have the same CML.
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Market Equilibrium
return
L M C
Optimal Risky Porfolio 100% stocks
rf
100% bonds
All investors have the same CML because they all have the same optimal risky portfolio given the risk-free rate.
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rf
100% bonds
The separation property implies that portfolio choice can be separated into two tasks: (1) determine the optimal risky portfolio, and (2) selecting a point on the CML. 48
r r
1 f 0 f
By the way, the optimal risky portfolio depends on the risk-free rate as well as the risky assets.
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Market risk, which is relevant for stocks held in well-diversified portfolios, is defined as the contribution of a security to the overall riskiness of the portfolio. It is measured by a stocks beta coefficient, which measures the stocks volatility relative to the market. What is the relevant risk for a stock held in isolation?
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i =
( RM )
2
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Run a regression with returns on the stock in question plotted on the Y axis and returns on the market portfolio plotted on the X axis. The slope of the regression line, which measures relative volatility, is defined as the stocks beta coefficient, or . Analysts typically use four or five years of monthly returns to establish the regression line. Some use 52 weeks of weekly returns.
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Return on market %
Ri = i + iRm + ei
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Use the historical stock returns to calculate the beta for XYZ.
Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Market 25.7% 8.0% -11.0% 15.0% 32.5% 13.7% 40.0% 10.0% -10.8% -13.1% XYZ 40.0% -15.0% -15.0% 35.0% 10.0% 30.0% 42.0% -10.0% -25.0% 25.0%
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RM 0% 20% 40%
+ 0.03
= 0.36
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R i = RF + i ( R M RF )
Market Risk Premium
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R i = RF + i ( R M RF )
Assume i = 0, then the expected return is RF. Assume i = 1, then R i = R M
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R i = RF + i ( R M RF )
RM RF
1.0
R i = RF + i ( R M RF )
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13.5% 3%
i = 1. 5 RF = 3%
1.5
R M = 10%
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The contribution of a security to the risk of a welldiversified portfolio is proportional to the covariance of the security's return with the markets return. This contribution is called the
beta.
i =
Cov ( Ri , RM )
2 ( RM )
The CAPM states that the expected return on a security is positively related to the securitys beta:
R i = RF + i ( R M RF )
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