You are on page 1of 53

C PHIU (STOCK)

Ni dung nghin cu

Khi nim c phiu Phn loi c phiu nh gi c phiu

DDM P/E

L thuyt v th trng hiu qu (EMHEfficient Market Hypothesis)


2

Khi nim c phiu

nh ngha (UBCKNN)

C phiu l mt loi chng khon c pht hnh di dng chng ch hay bt ton ghi s xc nh r quyn s hu v li ch hp php ca ngi s hu c phiu i vi ti sn hoc vn ca cng ty c phn. A stock is a certificate of ownership in a corporation. It is the same as a share.
4

c im

C ng l ch s hu, khng phi l ch n

T l s hu ph thuc t l c phiu c nm gi

Thu nhp t c phiu khng c nh do c tc v gi c phiu bin ng mnh C phiu khng c thi hn C ng c chia ti sn cui cng khi cng ty ph sn hoc gii th
6

Phn loi c phiu

Cn c vo vic lu hnh trn th trng


C phiu hin hnh (Outstanding) C phiu ngn qu (Treasury)

Cn c vo vic pht hnh vn iu l

C phiu s cp (Primary) C phiu th cp (Secondary) C phiu ph thng (Common) C phiu u i (Preffered)

Cn c vo quyn ca c ng

Cch phn loi ph bin nht

So snh c phiu u i v c phiu ph thng


Khng c quyn b phiu C phiu c mc c tc hoc t sut c tc (tnh trn mnh gi) c nh Li c tc cao hn so vi c phiu ph thng c i vn gp trc c ng c c phiu ph thng khi cng ty ph sn
8

Bin th ca c phiu u i

C phiu u i cng dn

Li c tc l nhng khon n phi tr C tc tng nu c tc ca c phiu ph thng vt qua mt mc nht nh C th chuyn i thnh c phiu ph thng trong nhng iu kin nht nh
9

C phiu u i tham d

C phiu u i c th chuyn i

Quyn ca ngi s hu c phiu ph thng


Quyn b phiu Quyn hng c tc Quyn mua c phiu mi trc th trng Quyn tip cn thng tin

10

nh gi c phiu

Gi tr c phiu Phng php xc nh gi c phiu


DDM (Dividend discount model) P/E ratio (Price/Earning)

11

Gi tr c phiu

Gi tr k ton ca c phiu (Book value) Gi tr thanh khon ca c phiu (Liquidity value) Gi tr th trng ca c phiu (Market value)

12

Gi tr k ton ca c phiu (Book value)

L gi tr ti sn rng (net worth) ca cng ty trn mi c phiu theo bng cn i ti sn (balance sheet) Thi im
cui nm

13

Gi tr thanh khon ca c phiu (Liquidity value)

Gi tr thanh khon ca c phiu l khon tin thu c trn mt c phiu t vic bn tt c ti sn hin c ca cng ty trn th trng v tr cc khon n

14

Gi tr th trng ca c phiu (Market value)

Gi tr th trng ca c phiu thng phi ln hn gi tr thanh khon hay gi tr k ton. Ti sao ? Nu khng, vic kt hp cc ti sn sn xut kinh doanh ch l v ngha v n khng lm tng gi tr ca ti sn
15

Gi tr th trng ca c phiu (Market value)

3 yu t dn n s chnh lch gia gi tr th trng v cc gi tr k ton, gi tr thanh khon

Kh nng thu li nhun cao (Extra earning power) Ti sn v hnh (Intangible assets) Gi tr ca ca cc khon u t trong tng lai (Value of future investment)
16

Kh nng thu li nhun cao (Extra earning power)

Mt cng ty c th c t sut li nhun ln hn t sut li nhun trung bnh trn th trng

Do , gi tr c phiu (gi tr cng ty) khi s ln hn gi tr k ton v gi tr thanh khon


17

Ti sn v hnh (Intangible assets)

Mt s ti sn khng c phn nh khi lp bng cn i k ton

Ti sn v hnh (Cc cng thc iu ch thuc)

18

Gi tr ca ca cc khon u t trong tng lai (Value of future investment)

Nu cc nh u t tin rng cng ty s t mc t sut li nhun cao trong tng lai th h s chp nhn mua c phiu vi gi cao hn gi c phiu hin ti V d: C phiu Nescape tng 15 ln trong ngy giao dch u tin
Nim tin ca cc nh u t 19

Nescape nevigator

Gi tr c phiu

Vy, gi c phiu (gi tr th trng) khng phi l gi tr k ton hay gi tr thanh khon.
Stock Price

Present earning

Future earning

Intangible assets income

Tangible assets income

Future perfomance

20

Phng php xc nh gi c phiu

C 3 phng php xc nh gi c phiu

M hnh chit khu dng c tc (DDM-Dividend discount model) Phng php ch s (P/E ratio) Phng php chit khu dng tin (Discounted Cashflow model)
21

M hnh chit khu c tc (DDM)

M hnh chit khu dng c tc cho php xc nh gi c phiu khi bit c tc c tr tng thi k v li sut yu cu t Cng thc tng qut :

P0

1 ks 1 ks 1 ks
1 2

D1

D2

D3

. . .

1 ks

Dt

...

C tc khng tr li gc
22

M hnh chit khu c tc (DDM)

Nu ti nm th H, gi c phiu l PH th gi hin ti l:

P0

1 ks 1 ks 1 ks
1 2

D1

D2

D3

. . .

1 ks

DH PH
H

Vi gi nh mc li sut chit khu ks, cho d cc nh u t gi c phiu trong 1,2,hay H nm ri sau bn th gi c phiu thi im hin ti vn khng thay i 23

M hnh chit khu c tc (DDM)

Vi mc li sut khng i 8%/nm, gi c phiu Blue Skies khng thay i bt k nh u t s gi c phiu trong bao lu

24

M hnh chit khu c tc (DDM)

Nu c phiu c gi cng lu th gi tr hin ti ca cc khon c tc trong tng lai cng tng v gi tr hin ti ca PH cng gim

25

M hnh chit khu c tc (DDM)

26

M hnh tng trng c tc (Constant growth DDM)

M hnh tng trng c tc l mt trng hp c bit ca m hnh chit khu c tc trong c tc hng nm c gi nh tng trng mt t l khng i g<ks

27

M hnh tng trng c tc (Constant growth DDM)

Cng thc: P0

1 ks 1 ks 1 ks
1 2

D1

D2

D3

. . .

1 ks

Dt

...

D1 D0 (1 g )1 D2 D0 (1 g ) 2 D3 D0 (1 g ) ... DN D0 (1 g ) N
28

D0 (1 g ) D1 P0 ks g ks g

M hnh tng trng c tc (Constant growth DDM)

Vy nu bit tc tng trng c tc, gi c phiu v c tc nm u th c th tnh c li sut yu cu ks

D1 ks g P0

??

ks khng b chi phi trc tip bi D1 v g ks l li sut yu cu trn th trng v c th c dng tnh gi c phiu cng loi
29

M hnh tng trng c tc (Constant growth DDM)

ROE l li sut ti u t

T l tng trng c tc g l t l tng trng trong di hn v thng c d on da trn cng thc

ROE-Return on Equity: l t l gia thu nhp ca cng ty trn vn c phn

T l thu nhp ca cng ty c dng ti u t


30

M hnh tng trng c tc (Constant growth DDM)


Nhn xt

M hnh tng trng c tc khng nh gi c cc cng ty khng tr c tc thng xuyn Gi nh quan trng nht: tc tng trng c tc lun khng i v nh hn li sut chit khu (g<ks) Tc tng trng c tc (g) cng chnh bng tc tng gi c phiu

D1 P 1 1 g D0 P 0

31

M hnh tng trng c tc (Constant growth DDM)


Tnh gi c phiu: Cng ty IFC va tr c tc $2/c phiu v mc tng trng c tc k vng trn th trng s mi l 5%/nm. Hi c phiu IFC nn c bn vi gi bao nhiu nu bit li sut chit khu l 15%/nm?
32

M hnh tng trng c tc (Constant growth DDM)


Tnh tc tng trng c tc: Cng ty CFC s tr c tc $5/c phiu vo nm sau. C phiu CFC ang c bn vi gi $50/c phiu. Tc tng trng c tc l bao nhiu nu bit cc cng ty nh CFC thng c mc li sut yu cu l 14%/nm?
33

M hnh tng trng c tc (Constant growth DDM)


Tnh li sut chit khu: C phiu cng ty X ang bn vi gi $40/c phiu. C tc tr nm sau l $4/c phiu. Nu li sut ti u t ca cng ty l 15%/nm v cng ty dnh 40% thu nhp ti u t th li sut chit khu l bao nhiu?

34

M hnh tng trng c tc (Constant growth DDM)

Mt c phiu c mc c tc k vng trong 3 nm u ln lt l: $1, $1.25,$1.5. Cc nh u t cho rng gi c phiu sau 3 nm s l $20/c phiu. Hi gi c phiu hin ti l bao nhiu nu bit li sut chit khu l 10%/nm?
35

M hnh tng trng c tc (Constant growth DDM)

C phiu X c mc c tc sau 3 nm u khng i l $2. Sau c tc tng vi tc khng i l 6%/nm. Hi c phiu X hin c bn vi gi bao nhiu nu bit li sut chit khu l 13%/nm?

36

M hnh tng trng c tc (Constant growth DDM)

Cng ty ABC thuc ngnh cng nghip ang suy thoi. Doanh thu, li nhun v c tc u gim mc 10%/nm. C tc va tr nm nay l $3

a. Khi no c th p dng m hnh tng trng c tc trong trng hp ny? Khi gi c phiu bng bao nhiu, bit li sut chit khu l 15%/nm?
b. D on gi c phiu nm sau l bao nhiu?
37

Phng php ch s

Cng thc tnh P/E Phng php tnh P/E

38

Cng thc tnh P/E

Ch s gi trn thu nhp (P/E) cho bit cc nh u t sn sng tr bao nhiu tin cho mt ng thu nhp trn bng cn i k ton Gi c phiu ca mt cng ty c tnh da trn ch s P/E ca mt cng ty tng ng
39

Cng thc tnh P/E


??

Financial analysts: Expected earning (E1)

PB PA EA EB

WSJ: Present earning (E0)

Trong :

PA l gi c phiu ca cng ty A PB l gi c phiu ca cng ty B EB l thu nhp ca cng ty B tnh trn 1 c phiu (Earning per share)
40

Phng php tnh P/E

Da trn cng thc tnh P ca m hnh DDM

P D1 E1 0 E1 ks g

D1/E1: L t l tr c tc (dividend payout ratio) P/E ph thuc vo 3 yu t:


T l tr c tc Li sut yu cu T l tng trng c tc


41

Phng php tnh P/E

T l P/E cao cha hn l tt cho cng ty

Nu P/E cao v thu nhp d tnh E1 thp th l du hiu xu Nu t l tr c tc D1/E1cao:

Tt nu cng ty to ra nhiu tin mt Xu nu cng ty thiu nhng c hi u t c li nhun cao


Thu nhp d tnh cao Li sut yu cu thp (Ri ro thp)

Thng thng P/E cao l du hiu tt


42

ng dng thc t ca P/E

L ch s u tin cc nh u t xem xt khi a ra quyt nh u t.

Lun hin din trn bng thng tin c phiu ca Wall Street Journal

Mt s nh phn tch ti chnh khng s dng P/E

E c th thay i nh creative accounting khng ng tin cy E1 l con s d on nm sau khng tin Thay phn tch P/E bng phn tch Cashflow
43

Phng php tnh P/E


Tnh P/E Cng ty CS c li sut ti u t l 20% v duy tr t l ti u t l 30% thu nhp. Thu nhp trn mt c phiu d tnh nm sau l $2. Nh u t k vng mc li sut yu cu l 12%.

a. Tnh t l P/E b. iu g xy ra i vi P/E nu t l ti u t gim cn 20% thu nhp? Ti sao? c. Chng minh rng nu t l ti u t bng 0 th t l E/P gim xung bng mc li sut yu cu
44

Th trng hiu qu v nh gi chng khon


Gi nh ca m hnh nh gi Th trng hiu qu v nh gi chng khon

45

Gi nh ca m hnh nh gi

Cng mt chng khon cc nh u t ch c duy nht mt li sut yu cu Gi nh v th trng cnh tranh hon ho (Perfect competitve market)

Khng ph giao dch (Costless transaction) Cc thng tin min ph (free information)

Th trng vn cc nc pht trin t n mc gn hon ho


46

Th trng hiu qu v nh gi chng khon

Trong mi trng cnh tranh hon ho, gi chng khon c duy tr mc cn bng Mc gi cn bng thng rt st vi gi tr thc ca chng khon

Giao dch min ph Cng b thng tin


47

Th trng hiu qu v nh gi chng khon


Gi thuyt th trng hiu qu: Gi mt chng khon bao hm tt c cc thng tin lin quan n chng khon Gi chng khon phn nh mi thng tin hin c trn th trng

48

Th trng hiu qu v nh gi chng khon

Gi thuyt th trng hiu qu c 3 mc :

Th trng hiu qu yu (Weak)

Gi chng khon phn nh tt c nhng bin ng gi trong qu kh Gi chng khon phn nh tt c cc thng tin c cng b Gi chng khan phn nh tt c cc thng tin trn th trng 49

Thng tin cng b Thng tin ni gin

Th trng hiu qu trung bnh (Semi-strong)

Th trng hiu qu mnh (Strong)

Th trng hiu qu v nh gi chng khon

Cc kt qu nghin cu nh lng ng h quan im th trng hiu qu yu v th trng hiu qu trung bnh

Gi c phiu k sau l kt hp ca gi k trc v mt bin lng ngu-Maurice Kendall (1953)

Gi thuyt th trng hiu qu mnh khng c cc nh u t chuyn nghip ng h

N lc tm kim thng tin ni gin qua mt cc nh u t khc khng phi l v vng V khng b 11/9 em li khong 15 t USD cho cc nh u t c thng tin ni gin
50

Th trng hiu qu v nh gi chng khon


9/11 IMPACT ON US STOCK MARKET

Close Volume

22/08

27/08

01/09

06/09

11/09

16/09

21/09

26/09

01/10

06/10

11/10

51

52

Th trng hiu qu mnh


Thi gian: 6-9/9 Chng loi chng khon


Lnh mua put tng 60 ln

$5t

Put option ca American va United Airline 5-year treasury notes Li nhun thu c ton cu: USD 15 billion

Dung lng mi giao dch tng: 5-10 ln


Lnh mua put tng 90 ln

53

You might also like