Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Ni dung nghin cu
DDM P/E
nh ngha (UBCKNN)
C phiu l mt loi chng khon c pht hnh di dng chng ch hay bt ton ghi s xc nh r quyn s hu v li ch hp php ca ngi s hu c phiu i vi ti sn hoc vn ca cng ty c phn. A stock is a certificate of ownership in a corporation. It is the same as a share.
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c im
T l s hu ph thuc t l c phiu c nm gi
Thu nhp t c phiu khng c nh do c tc v gi c phiu bin ng mnh C phiu khng c thi hn C ng c chia ti sn cui cng khi cng ty ph sn hoc gii th
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Cn c vo quyn ca c ng
Khng c quyn b phiu C phiu c mc c tc hoc t sut c tc (tnh trn mnh gi) c nh Li c tc cao hn so vi c phiu ph thng c i vn gp trc c ng c c phiu ph thng khi cng ty ph sn
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Bin th ca c phiu u i
C phiu u i cng dn
Li c tc l nhng khon n phi tr C tc tng nu c tc ca c phiu ph thng vt qua mt mc nht nh C th chuyn i thnh c phiu ph thng trong nhng iu kin nht nh
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C phiu u i tham d
C phiu u i c th chuyn i
Quyn b phiu Quyn hng c tc Quyn mua c phiu mi trc th trng Quyn tip cn thng tin
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nh gi c phiu
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Gi tr c phiu
Gi tr k ton ca c phiu (Book value) Gi tr thanh khon ca c phiu (Liquidity value) Gi tr th trng ca c phiu (Market value)
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L gi tr ti sn rng (net worth) ca cng ty trn mi c phiu theo bng cn i ti sn (balance sheet) Thi im
cui nm
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Gi tr thanh khon ca c phiu l khon tin thu c trn mt c phiu t vic bn tt c ti sn hin c ca cng ty trn th trng v tr cc khon n
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Gi tr th trng ca c phiu thng phi ln hn gi tr thanh khon hay gi tr k ton. Ti sao ? Nu khng, vic kt hp cc ti sn sn xut kinh doanh ch l v ngha v n khng lm tng gi tr ca ti sn
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Kh nng thu li nhun cao (Extra earning power) Ti sn v hnh (Intangible assets) Gi tr ca ca cc khon u t trong tng lai (Value of future investment)
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Nu cc nh u t tin rng cng ty s t mc t sut li nhun cao trong tng lai th h s chp nhn mua c phiu vi gi cao hn gi c phiu hin ti V d: C phiu Nescape tng 15 ln trong ngy giao dch u tin
Nim tin ca cc nh u t 19
Nescape nevigator
Gi tr c phiu
Vy, gi c phiu (gi tr th trng) khng phi l gi tr k ton hay gi tr thanh khon.
Stock Price
Present earning
Future earning
Future perfomance
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M hnh chit khu dng c tc (DDM-Dividend discount model) Phng php ch s (P/E ratio) Phng php chit khu dng tin (Discounted Cashflow model)
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M hnh chit khu dng c tc cho php xc nh gi c phiu khi bit c tc c tr tng thi k v li sut yu cu t Cng thc tng qut :
P0
1 ks 1 ks 1 ks
1 2
D1
D2
D3
. . .
1 ks
Dt
...
C tc khng tr li gc
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Nu ti nm th H, gi c phiu l PH th gi hin ti l:
P0
1 ks 1 ks 1 ks
1 2
D1
D2
D3
. . .
1 ks
DH PH
H
Vi gi nh mc li sut chit khu ks, cho d cc nh u t gi c phiu trong 1,2,hay H nm ri sau bn th gi c phiu thi im hin ti vn khng thay i 23
Vi mc li sut khng i 8%/nm, gi c phiu Blue Skies khng thay i bt k nh u t s gi c phiu trong bao lu
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Nu c phiu c gi cng lu th gi tr hin ti ca cc khon c tc trong tng lai cng tng v gi tr hin ti ca PH cng gim
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M hnh tng trng c tc l mt trng hp c bit ca m hnh chit khu c tc trong c tc hng nm c gi nh tng trng mt t l khng i g<ks
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Cng thc: P0
1 ks 1 ks 1 ks
1 2
D1
D2
D3
. . .
1 ks
Dt
...
D1 D0 (1 g )1 D2 D0 (1 g ) 2 D3 D0 (1 g ) ... DN D0 (1 g ) N
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D0 (1 g ) D1 P0 ks g ks g
D1 ks g P0
??
ks khng b chi phi trc tip bi D1 v g ks l li sut yu cu trn th trng v c th c dng tnh gi c phiu cng loi
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ROE l li sut ti u t
M hnh tng trng c tc khng nh gi c cc cng ty khng tr c tc thng xuyn Gi nh quan trng nht: tc tng trng c tc lun khng i v nh hn li sut chit khu (g<ks) Tc tng trng c tc (g) cng chnh bng tc tng gi c phiu
D1 P 1 1 g D0 P 0
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Tnh gi c phiu: Cng ty IFC va tr c tc $2/c phiu v mc tng trng c tc k vng trn th trng s mi l 5%/nm. Hi c phiu IFC nn c bn vi gi bao nhiu nu bit li sut chit khu l 15%/nm?
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Tnh tc tng trng c tc: Cng ty CFC s tr c tc $5/c phiu vo nm sau. C phiu CFC ang c bn vi gi $50/c phiu. Tc tng trng c tc l bao nhiu nu bit cc cng ty nh CFC thng c mc li sut yu cu l 14%/nm?
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Tnh li sut chit khu: C phiu cng ty X ang bn vi gi $40/c phiu. C tc tr nm sau l $4/c phiu. Nu li sut ti u t ca cng ty l 15%/nm v cng ty dnh 40% thu nhp ti u t th li sut chit khu l bao nhiu?
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Mt c phiu c mc c tc k vng trong 3 nm u ln lt l: $1, $1.25,$1.5. Cc nh u t cho rng gi c phiu sau 3 nm s l $20/c phiu. Hi gi c phiu hin ti l bao nhiu nu bit li sut chit khu l 10%/nm?
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C phiu X c mc c tc sau 3 nm u khng i l $2. Sau c tc tng vi tc khng i l 6%/nm. Hi c phiu X hin c bn vi gi bao nhiu nu bit li sut chit khu l 13%/nm?
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Cng ty ABC thuc ngnh cng nghip ang suy thoi. Doanh thu, li nhun v c tc u gim mc 10%/nm. C tc va tr nm nay l $3
a. Khi no c th p dng m hnh tng trng c tc trong trng hp ny? Khi gi c phiu bng bao nhiu, bit li sut chit khu l 15%/nm?
b. D on gi c phiu nm sau l bao nhiu?
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Phng php ch s
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Ch s gi trn thu nhp (P/E) cho bit cc nh u t sn sng tr bao nhiu tin cho mt ng thu nhp trn bng cn i k ton Gi c phiu ca mt cng ty c tnh da trn ch s P/E ca mt cng ty tng ng
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PB PA EA EB
Trong :
PA l gi c phiu ca cng ty A PB l gi c phiu ca cng ty B EB l thu nhp ca cng ty B tnh trn 1 c phiu (Earning per share)
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P D1 E1 0 E1 ks g
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Lun hin din trn bng thng tin c phiu ca Wall Street Journal
E c th thay i nh creative accounting khng ng tin cy E1 l con s d on nm sau khng tin Thay phn tch P/E bng phn tch Cashflow
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a. Tnh t l P/E b. iu g xy ra i vi P/E nu t l ti u t gim cn 20% thu nhp? Ti sao? c. Chng minh rng nu t l ti u t bng 0 th t l E/P gim xung bng mc li sut yu cu
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Gi nh ca m hnh nh gi
Cng mt chng khon cc nh u t ch c duy nht mt li sut yu cu Gi nh v th trng cnh tranh hon ho (Perfect competitve market)
Khng ph giao dch (Costless transaction) Cc thng tin min ph (free information)
Trong mi trng cnh tranh hon ho, gi chng khon c duy tr mc cn bng Mc gi cn bng thng rt st vi gi tr thc ca chng khon
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Gi chng khon phn nh tt c nhng bin ng gi trong qu kh Gi chng khon phn nh tt c cc thng tin c cng b Gi chng khan phn nh tt c cc thng tin trn th trng 49
N lc tm kim thng tin ni gin qua mt cc nh u t khc khng phi l v vng V khng b 11/9 em li khong 15 t USD cho cc nh u t c thng tin ni gin
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$5t
Put option ca American va United Airline 5-year treasury notes Li nhun thu c ton cu: USD 15 billion
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