Sustainable Water Supply and Sanitation in Challenging Times

2012 Annual Convention Philippine Association of Water Districts Radisson Hotel, Cebu City February 9, 2012

Water Availability vs. Population

The global overview of water availability versus the population stresses the continental disparities, and in particular, the pressure put on the Asian continent, which supports more than half of the worlds population with only 36 percent of the worlds water resources.

North & Central America

Europe Asia
8%13%

15% 8%

Africa

36% 60%

South America

17%13%

26% 6%

Australia And Oceania

5% <1%

Source: Website of the UNESCO/IHP Regional Office of Latin America and the Caribbean

Annual Renewable Water Resources

Country World Asia USA Japan Lao Peoples Dem Rep Malaysia Myanmar Indonesia Cambodia Vietnam Philippines Thailand Total Resources (km3) 42,655.0 13,508.0 2,460.0 460.0 190.4 530.0 880.6 2,838.0 120.6 366.5 146.0 110.0 2000 (m3/person) 7,045 3,368 3,838 3,393 35,049 26,074 19,306 13,380 10,795 4,591 1,907 1,854

Philippines Environment Monitor 2003, World Bank

PROJECTED REGIONAL SUPPLY/DEMAND SITUATION

2005 - 2025 (Thousand Cubic Meters)

Water Resources Regions

Source: NWRB 1980 data, 1998 JICA WR Assessment

The above graph shows the wide spatial variability of water supply and demand across the country thus the need for region-specific water management policies and strategies typical of a humid tropic, archipelagic country.

SALTWATER INTRUSION 2003

Water Supply and Sanitation

88.6% access to Sanitary toilets ??

81.4 % access to safe water supply

The 81% for access to safe water and 88% access to sanitary toilets are quite impressive but the contradiction is that 64% of our surface water are not fit for drinking purposes which also corroborates with the DOH data ( from 1996 to 2000) that 31% of the reported illnesses are water related diseases; 18 million Filipinos (18.6%) do not have access to improved water sources and that 10 million people (12% of the total population) still defecate in the open.

Water Quality Monitoring 2010

88 water bodies monitored for DO 71 water bodies or 80.7% passed the DO criteria 61 water bodies monitored for BOD 45 or 73.8% passed the BOD criteria

Challenges
Environmental Degradation
Polluted waters
- surface waters - groundwater - coastal

Climate Change Consequences

More rainfall Higher temperature Sea level rise Extreme weather events

Degraded watersheds

Climate Change: our changing world

Whats it all about? Global Fever

(Sources: Climatic Research Unit of the University of East Anglia, Hadley Centre of the UK Meteorological Office, Data set TaveGL2v, Jones and Moberg, 2003)

Climate Change
Observed facts, future projections and risks in a warming world

Warming trends of the last century

Prof. Dr. Anders Levermann, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

Greenhouse gases (GHGs) trap heat from the sun to keep the Earth warm.

Increasing levels of GHGs in the atmosphere make for a warmer world leading to abrupt changes in climate!

Methane Carbon Dioxide

Nitrous Oxide

CO2

CH4

NO2 SF6

H2O
Water vapor

HFCs PFCs

CO2 CO2 HFCs N2O CO2 N2O CO2 CH4 CH4 N2OPFCsHFCs SF6CO2 CH CO2 4CH4 CO2 2 CO SF6CO2 SF6 CO2CO 2

The Greenhouse Effect

A Dangerous Experiment

CO2 Global temp CH4

 Global atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane & nitrous oxide have increased as a result of human activities since 1750. Pre industrial value: 280 ppm 2005 value: 379 ppm 11 years ( between 19952006) rank among the 12th warmest years since 1850

Human & Natural Drivers of Climate Change

th Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report: Summary for Policy-makers

GHG Sources in Phil.

(9,198 kt CO2)

(50,038 kt CO2)

TOTAL: 103,085 kt CO2

Source: 1994 Philippine GHG Inventory
(33,137 kt CO2) (10,711 kt CO2)

World has gotten warmer. It will continue to get hotter in this century and beyond. Whats it all We are causing this dangerous about? trend. To summarize

More precipitation from increased evaporation due to higher temp

Annual mean precipitation expected to increase about 14% in East Asia but this is not distributed evenly in the region

Projected precipitation changes

ADB Study on Economic Impacts of CC in Southeast Asia: - Indonesia, Thailand and
Vietnam will be generally drier in next 2-3 decades - Philippines will be generally wetter til the end of this century
Changes in annual mean precipitation in % (period 2071/2100 compared to 1961/1990, SRES A2)
http://ec.europa.eu/environment/ climat/adaptation/index_en.htm

Risk: Climate Change (Rainfall)

Projected changes in future climates in Rainfall for 2020 and 2050 under A1B scenario over Philippines
DJF_2020 DJF_2050
P e rc e n t ( % ) 45 35 25 15 5 -5

Projections for Seasonal Mean Rainfall ranges from -0.1 to 24.5% in 2020 & -12.5 to 18.2% in 2050.

-15 -25 -35 R0 1 CA R R0 2 R0 3 R0 4 NC R R0 5 R0 6 R0 7 R0 8 R0 9 R1 0 R1 1 R1 2 CA R AG A ARM M REGION R0 1 CA R R0 2 R0 3 R0 4 NC R R0 5 R0 6 R0 7 R0 8 R0 9 R1 0 R1 1 R1 2 CA R AG A ARM M REGION

2020 2050

MAM_2020

MAM_2050
45 35 25 P e rc e n t ( % ) 15 5 -5 -15 -25 -35 2020 2050

Projections for Seasonal Mean Rainfall ranges from -17.8 to 7.3% in 2020 & -34.5 to 4.4% in 2050.

Projected changes in future climates in Rainfall for 2020 and 2050 under A1B scenario over Philippines
JJA_2020
45

JJA_2050
P e rc e n t ( % )

35 25 15 5 -5

Projections for Seasonal Mean Rainfall ranges from -7.5 to 22.2% in 2020 & -10.8 to 44.6% in 2050.

-15 -25 -35 R0 1 CA R R0 2 R0 3 R0 4 NC R R0 5 R0 6 R0 7 R0 8 R0 9 R1 0 R1 1 R1 2 CA R AG A ARM M REGION R0 1 CA R R0 2 R0 3 R0 4 NC R R0 5 R0 6 R0 7 R0 8 R0 9 R1 0 R1 1 R1 2 CA R AG A AR M M REGION

2020 2050

SON_2020

SON_2050
P e rc e n t ( % )

45 35 25 15 5 -5 -15 -25 -35 2020 2050

Projections for Seasonal Mean Rainfall ranges from -11.4 to 20.6% in 2020 & -7.0 to 20% in 2050.

Based on the IPCC middle range scenario, entire East Asia Region will experience temperature rise of about 2.5C by end of the century

Winter temps will change more than summer temps.

Minimum daily temp will increase more than maximum daily temp Land will warm more than oceans, causing stronger monsoon Higher latitudes and altitudes will experience greater warming Number of frost days will decline, precipitation more rain than snowfall

Risk: Climate Change (Temperature)

Temperature Hazards

Projected changes in future climates in Mean Temperature for 2020 and 2050 under A1B scenario over Philippines
DJF_2020 DJF_2050
Tem perature C 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 R 01 CAR R 01 R 03 R 05 NCR R 04 R 06 R 07 R 10 R 09 R 08 R 11 ARMM CAR AG A R 12 2020 2050

Projections for mean temp are likely to increase by 0.9 - 1.0 oC in 2020 & 1.8 - 2.1 oC in 2050.

Re gions

MAM_2020

MAM_2050
2.5 T em p eratu re C 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 AR M M C AR AG A R 12 R 11 R 10 R 09 R 08 R 07 R 06 R 05 NCR R 04 R 03 R 01 C AR R 01 Regions 2020 2050

Projections for mean temp are likely to increase by 0.9 - 1.2 oC in 2020 & 2.1 - 2.4 oC in 2050.

Projected changes in future climates in Mean Temperature for 2020 and 2050 under A1B scenario over Philippines
DJF_2020 DJF_2050
Tem perature C 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 R 01 CAR R 01 R 03 R 05 NCR R 04 R 06 R 07 R 10 R 09 R 08 R 11 ARMM CAR AG A R 12 2020 2050

Projections for mean temp are likely to increase by 0.9 - 1.0 oC in 2020 & 1.8 - 2.1 oC in 2050.

Re gions

MAM_2020

MAM_2050
2.5 T em p eratu re C 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 AR M M C AR AG A R 12 R 11 R 10 R 09 R 08 R 07 R 06 R 05 NCR R 04 R 03 R 01 C AR R 01 Regions 2020 2050

Projections for mean temp are likely to increase by 0.9 - 1.2 oC in 2020 & 2.1 - 2.4 oC in 2050.

SUMMARY OF FINDINGS
Seasonal variation like the summer monsoon and winter monsoon was captured by the model. Under the A1B scenario annual mean temperatures in the Philippines are expected to rise by about 0.9C to 1.1C for 2020 and 1.9 C to 2.2 C by 2050. Projection of seasonal temporal rainfall variation is largest (-35 % to 45%) during the seasons of JJA and MAM. Meanwhile projection of seasonal temporal rainfall variation is lesser (-0.5 % to 25%) during the seasons of DJF and SON. The highest increase in rainfall during southwest monsoon season (JJA) is likely in Region 01 (44%), CAR (29%), Region 03 (34%), Region 04 (24%) and Region 05 (24%) in 2050.

SUMMARY OF FINDINGS

The model indicated that climate change will probably lead to an active southwest monsoon in Luzon and Visayas as evident in future increases in rainfall which is more pronounced in JJA and becoming greater with time. The drier season of March-May will become drier, while the wetter seasons of June- August and September-November become wetter. A downward trend is likely in Mindanao as indicated in the reduction in seasonal rainfall in MAM, JJA and SON by 2050.

Across Society
Vulnerable sectors
Agriculture Freshwater Health Biodiversity Forests ENSO drought events and rice

1oC increase leads to 15% decrease in rice yield

From: www.sciencentral.com: Cassman, IRRI, National Academy of Sciences

Climate Change Impacts

Increase in sea surface temperatures of about 0.50C can already initiate coral bleaching 1995 & 1998 coral bleaching events
(e.g., Tubbataha Reef Marine Park, Bolinao, Kalayaan Island Group, NW Palawan)
Licuanan et al., 2001

June-Nov 1998 coral bleaching led to 46% decrease in coral cover and about 49% of overall coral death in the area

Arceo, et. al. Coral Bleaching in the Philippines. Disturbing Climate. 2001 World Wildlife Fund. Climate Change Scenarios for the Philippines

CORAL BLEACHING & DEATH

 Inundate wetlands and other low lying lands

Rising Sea Levels

Erode beaches Intensify flooding Increase the salinity of rivers, bays and groundwater tables

More intense and longer droughts since 1970 particularly in the tropics and subtropics due to increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation.

There is observational evidence of increase intensity of tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic since 1970 correlated with the increase in sea surface temperature.

Direct Observations of Recent Climate Change

Cold days, cold nights and frost have become less frequent. While hot days, hot nights, and heat waves have become more frequent.

Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report: Summary for Policy-makers

Aggravated by loss of forests which serve as carbon sinks & watersheds

Half of the forests that originally covered 46% of the Earth's land surface are gone. Only one-fifth of the Earth's original forests remain pristine and undisturbed

CONCLUSION
Business as usual is NOT AN OPTION! Unless action is taken now: - the standard of living will suffer far worse consequences - poverty will be exacerbated - there will be more damage to property & lives - decades of growth can be wiped out - mans very survival is at great risk!

CONCLUSION
Climate change action will require concerted effort of governments & their partners (PRIVATE SECTOR. NGOs, communities, development partners) to manage and adopt to a changing & more invasive environment

SHARED RESPONSIBILITY

WE MUST PLAN and WORK TOGETHER.

Under the framework of SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT 1. Reduce carbon (Mitigation) 2. Reduce risk (Adaptation)

Some Mitigation Measures:

Conserve energy and water Improve energy efficiency Shift to alternative, renewable fuel (non fossil fuel) Improve /support mass transport system Encorurage more Compost, recycle & reuse (Ecological Solid Waste Mgt) Stop burning of waste

Ensure the source of water Support forest protection and rehabilitation of degraded watersheds

Manila Water Marikina Watershed Initiative

190 Nursery Chambers established from January to December 2011. Total Nursery Capacity 380,000 seedlings Survival rate of native tree wildlings 80 percent (average)

ORGANIZATIONAL DEVELOPMENT - PEOPLES ORGANIZATIONS : Lead NGO: PEACE Fnd. - PEACE Foundation

9 Peoples Organizations strengthened (VMG revisited, Duties and Responsibilities of Board, Officers and Members clarified, initial plan of action formulated and implemented, registration with DOLE/SEC, financial management systems in place, bank account opened and maintained).

Watershed Management & Biodiversity Conservation & Sustainable Development Rainforestation Farming Training with 9 Peoples Organizations continuing

Green Breaks as Livelihood project

On-site Out-Planting, Food for Work, Coordination for the Project

Mitigation alone is not enough impacts of Climate Change a REALITY we need to ADAPT to and plan for

NOW!!!

Precipitation - Adaptation Sound Practices

Tokyo Designing urban holding ponds under roads and parks to temporarily store run off water to avoid flash floods To construct storm water drainage canal system (East Canal) to provide adequate drainage for eastern part of city Construction of 6 storey high water storage under Burgos Circle

Jakarta

The Fort Taguig Vietnam

Build large & medium reservoirs upstream of big rivers Strengthen extensive dike system (5000 kms of river dikes & 3,000 kms of sea dikes)

Examples of key sectoral adaptation opportunities - Precipitation

Sector Adaptation option/strategy

Water (Singapore)

Expanded rainwater harvesting /water storage (17 reservoirs) Water conservation Water re-use (NeWater) Desalination Water use and irrigation efficiency

We are blessed with more than 140 Billion Cubic Meters of rainfall, each year. We lose nearly 80% of it

Rainwater harvesting/storage

GK Bagong Silang Caloocan

GK Mapahiusa Village, Tanjay

GK Fishermans Village, Bayawan City

Cistern in GK Pinagbayanan, Quezon

Rainwater Storage in DPWH Offices

 Promote water conservation (incentivize)

Improve water efficiency: - low flow faucets and showers - waterless urinals - dual flush toilets

 Maximize the use of existing water resources through recycling and reuse: - reuse treated wastewater (GK Bayawan, SM Malls, Waterfront Hotel, Cebu) Green Buildings - adjustments in the design of homes and buildings

Allow rainwater to recharge the aquifer

More Urban Greening

Wastewater Treatment to protect all water sources, low cost, decentralized and low maintenance systems provide viable and effective options (proven in GK villages)

Anaerobic Baffled Reactor (ABR)

Wastewater Treatment REED BED SYSTEM

Reed beds using Pragmytis (tambo) treat sewage in GK Fishermans Village in Bayawan City

BIODIGESTERS

Biodigesters treat sewage, biodegradable components of solid waste and animal manure and capture the methane gas (a greenhouse gas) In GK Budlaan, Cebu City, GK Mapahiusa,Tanjay City and GK Lipa City

SEPTAGE TREATMENT

ECO SAN waterless toilets

Separation of liquid (urine and solid (feces) Regular collection of waste for processing into compost

Examples of key sectoral adaptation opportunities sea level rise

Sector Adaptation option/strategy

Infrastructure & settlements

Relocation Protection of existing natural barriers Creation of marshlands & wetlands as buffer against sea level rise & flooding Seawalls & storm surge barriers

THE WORLD IS CHANGING.

Are we on board as leaders or mere followers?

National Climate Change Action Plan

Vision
A climate risk-resilient Philippines with healthy, safe, prosperous and self-reliant communities, and thriving and productive ecosystems.

Goal
To build the adaptive capacity of communities and increase the resilience of natural ecosystems to climate change, and optimize mitigation opportunities towards sustainable development

We have no choice. We have to adapt to this more invasive environment to ensure our very survival!

AVOID the UNTHINKABLE! ADAPT to the UNAVOIDABLE!