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Bng cng vic c lng Kim sot ri ro Lp tin thc hin Phng php lp lch biu Phn b lc lng, ti nguyn Tnh chi ph
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Cc mc tiu i vi phn ny
Gii thch mi quan h gia Sn phm v cng vic Cung cp phng php lp lch biu Cung cp k nng thc hin c phn tch nh gi ri ro d n Cung cp k nng qun l ri ro hiu qu
WBS l mt danh sch chi tit nhng g cn lm hon thnh mt d n. Nu lm WBS tt, s xc nh chnh xc cc bc hon thnh d n. Tham gia xy dng WBS: ngi qun l d n, khch hng, thnh vin t, ngi ti tr d n.
WBS l c s c lng chi ph. T WBS s c 1 bc tranh chung v kinh ph d n WBS l c s xc nh trch nhim gia cc c nhn WBS l c s xy dng lch trnh thc hin d n.
C chiu hng trn xung. Vd: Chun b dn bi cho mt bi vn. Ch : Quan h gia m t cng vic v m t sn phm Sn phm: danh t
u vo, u ra, ng tc x l
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Cng vic: ng t, m t mt qu trnh hot ng, x l WBS c th c phn thnh nhiu mc. Khng phi tt c "nhnh" ca WBS u cn chi tit cng s mc. Mi mc cho php to ra lch biu v bo co tm tt thng tin ti tng mc . WBS vit "ci g", ch khng vit "nh th no"; Trnh t ca tng cng vic l khng quan trng. Ch xc nh trnh t trong giai on lp lch trnh
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Ti liu:
Ti liu c lin quan ti d n: Phc tho d n, bo co nghin cu tin kh thi, bo co nghin cu kh thi
Ti liu khng lin quan ti d n: cho cc thng tin ph tr. V d: s t chc c quan, cc th tc hnh chnh, quy tc lm vic, ...
Con ngi: Nhng ngi c mi quan h trc tip, hay gin tip, vi d n.
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Danh sch sn phm: DSSP (Product Breakdown Structure) Danh sch cng vic: DSCV (Task Breakdown Structure)
M t theo trnh t t trn xung Mc phn cp tu theo phc tp ca sn phm. Ni chung, sn phm cng phc tp th s cc mc cng ln hn. Sn phm ton b v tng sn phm con c m t bng danh t.
Sn phm con A
Sn phm con B
Sn phm con C
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Xc nh cc cng vic cn thc hin. DSCV c chia thnh nhiu mc v m t t trn xung di. DSCV c th c chia thnh cc mc khc nhau, mc phn cp tu thuc vo phc tp ca sn phm ton b hay sn phm con. Mi cng vic u c m t bng ng t (hnh ng) v mt b ng.
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Xc nh X l 1
Xc nh X l 2
Xc nh X l 3
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Xy dng WBS
Mc tiu d n
Xc nh kt qu bn giao
Sn phm bn giao
nh ngha k hoch
k hoch cng vic
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C phn DSSP v DSCV u c nh m duy nht. M s xc nh v tr, hay mc, ca phn t trong WBS Lu :
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M t X l 1 (2.1.2.1)
M t X l 3 (2.1.2.3)
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a/ Dn dng theo sn phm b/ Dn dng theo trnh t c/ Dn dng theo trch nhim
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Phng bp 1.0
Phng ng 3.0
Bn n
1.1
T bp
1.2
nh sng 2.1
Trang tr 2.2
Salon 2.3
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Ghp st 1.1
mng
1.2
Tng 2.1
Trn 2.3
Xy gch 2.1.1
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g 1.0
N 2.0
in 3.0
Ca 1.1
Cu thang 1.2
Trn 2.2
B nc 2.3
Xy gch 2.1.1
2.1.2
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Giai on
Mc 2
Sn phm
Sn phm
Mc 3.
Cng vic
Cng vic
Cng vic
Cng vic
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D n Giai on
1 2 3
giai on
Sn phm
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1
2 3 4 5
giai on
giai on
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Tch cc giai on thnh tng sn phm Tch cc sn phm thnh tng cng vic Cc cng vic nh d dng c tnh v qun l hn tng giai on ln Cc cng vic cn:
Thng khng nh hn 7 ngi/gi lm vic Thng khng nhiu hn 70 ngi/gi lm vic Thng khng s dng nhiu hn 2 ngun Thng xuyn c mt vn bn cng vic xc nh
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nh hng kt qu bn giao Trch nhim ca mt c nhn C hn i vi vic bt u v kt thc n v cng vic c th qun l c D hiu C th o lng c
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Trnh by trn bng trng to, giy dnh mu vng V WBS trn bng trng to, v cho n khi no xong th thi, chp ra giy V trn giy. Khng thch hp i vi cc d n ln V trn my tnh. D sa i Trong mi cch trnh by, cui cng WBS bt buc phi in ra giy.
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Ly ch k ca nhng ngi c lin quan (trc tip hoc gin tip) Chun b bn tho ca WBS, gi cho mi ngi c trc Hp tho lun, i n nht tr v k
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nh gi mt WBS tt
Mi nhnh ca WBS c chi tit ti mc thp nht Mi ca WBS c nh s duy nht. Mi ca Danh sch sn phm c th hin bng danh t (v tnh t) Mi ca Danh sch cng vic c th hin bng ng t v b ng. Mi cng vic trong WBS, u c xc nh y c phn hi v chp thun t mi ngi lin i n WBS
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Nguyn tc: khng bao gi nn vt b cc phin bn trc, cn bit c nhng rc ri ny sinh do s thay i. i khi c th quyt nh tr li k hoch gc ca mnh. Cn ghi ngy thng cho tng phin bn nh s hiu phin bn.
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2. c lng
c lng thi gian kh hn xy dng bng cng vic. c lng thi gian cho mi cng vic nh, c lng ton b thi gian DA c lng thi gian s l c s nh gi tin ca qu trnh thc hin d n. Xc nh cng vic quan trng, cng vic no phi lm trc cng vic no
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Thiu thng tin, thiu tri thc. Khng lng trc c nhng phc tp k thut Khng lng trc c s ho thun hay bt ha ca nhng thnh vin khi thc hin d n Sau khi a ra mt c lng thi gian ri, c lng c th b nhng kin khc gp : c tnh thu ngn li hoc dn di ra. Sc p ca cp trn: thng mun thu ngn thi gian thc hin cng vic. 31
Thiu thi gian cn nhc, tnh ton. Thiu thi gian gp g, trao i vi cc thnh vin, vi khch hng. Hn hp v kinh ph. Ngi khc (khch hng, thnh vin d n) khng cung cp (hoc che du) thng tin. Pht biu khng r rng v mc ch, mc tiu, kt qu. nhng c lng v thi gian u ch l cm tnh m khng da trn nhng cn c chnh xc. Bng Cng Vic c xy dng khng tt
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Lu
Trc khi c lng thi gian cho cng vic, nn xem li xem WBS vit r rng, chi tit cha. Vi cc cng vic gn ging nhau => c lng thi gian cng gn ging nhau, Khng bao gi c c c lng chnh xc hon ton. Vic c lng mang tnh ch quan. Hy vit ti liu khi c lng.
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Cc k thut lm c lng
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Da trn kinh nghim ch quan, cm tnh nhanh v d dng, kt qu thiu tin cy. Ch nn dng trong cc trng hp:
i ng chuyn mn rt c kinh nghim, c k nng cao, i hnh c nh D n quy nh, bt buc phi theo
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c lng PERT
c lng kh d nht (ML-Most Likely) c lng lc quan nht (MO-Most Optimistic) c lng bi quan nht (MP-Most Perssimistic) c lng cui cng tnh theo cng thc: (MO + 4(ML) + MP)/6
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V d: c lng lp LAN
Tn cng vic V s v khoan tng Lp cc ng gen
i dy Lp cc hp ni Lp cc my tnh, my ch, Hub Kt ni cc my tnh, my ch vo h thng dy mng Th xem mng thng cha Tng thi gian
MO 2 1
1 0.5 2 1
ML 3 2
2 1 3 2
MP 5 4
4 2 3 4
0.5 8
1 14
10 32
2.4 16
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5%
10%
5%
10% 45%
Nng sut ton cc 100% - 45% = 55% Thi gian l tng T gi: 100% Thi gian c lng x gi: 55% x = T / 0.55 gi
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Cc bc khi lm c lng
C WBS tt lp bng c lng Lp danh sch nhng ngi cn trao i Hp ring Thc hin tnh ton Hp chung C
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Cn sa?
Khng
4. Kim sot ri ro
Ri ro l mt s kin c th e do v cn tr d n thc hin nhng mong mun c xc nh trong ti liu d n ca nhng c ng. Kim sot ri ro nhm ngn chn v gim thiu nhng tn tht do ri ro gy ra cho d n
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Ti sao li cn qun l ri ro
Tt c cc d n u ph thuc vo ri ro Tin trnh s khng ng theo k hoch trong mt s giai on ca d n Ri ro khng th c loi tr trit
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Vai tr ca qun l ri ro
Gim thiu nh hng ca cc s c khng bit trc Nng cao xc sut thc hin thnh cng d n To ra thc kim sot C c cc gii php hiu qu v kp thi
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Sa i li cc c lng thi gian v chi ph xut k hoch d phng, kinh ph d phng Tn dng s tham gia, phi hp ca mi ngi vo vic hn ch ri ro. Tp trung vo kim sot nhng cng vic trng yu nht, c nh hng ln nht n s thnh cng ca d n. Lp bng "Qun l ri ro", c dng sau:
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[1]
[2]
[3]
[4]
[5]
M t: Xc nh vn (ri ro) Gi thit: Hon cnh c th lm xut hin ri ro Xc sut: c lng kh nng xut hin (%) nh gi nh hng i vi d n Cch gii quyt (i sch)
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Nm bc Qun l ri ro
1. Xc nh cc mc ri ro ban u ca d n 2. Lp thnh vn bn cc loi ri ro c th 3. Tin hnh phn tch nh hng ri ro 4. Xy dng v trin khai k hoch qun l ri ro 5. Gim st v cp nht ti liu v ri ro
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Xc nh cc mc ri ro ban u ca d n (bc 1)
Phn loi ri ro d n: vn c sn
lin quan n cc vn d n c th qun l nhng khng th loi tr loi ri ro ny lin quan n cc gii php d n phi kim sot trn nhng ri ro vn c v c nhng ri ro lan rng
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Acquired
Xc nh ri ro
Xc nh ra nhng s kin khng mong mun c th xy ra (gi l nhng e do) Ch : C 2 loi ri ro (e do):
Ri ro khng th d on trc (ho hon, c ngi cht t t, khng b, ....), hoc xc sut xy ra qu thp Ri ro c th d on trc => Ch nn ngh n nhng loi ri ro c th d on c
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V d: ...
Mt n nhn vin ngh sinh con (d on trc c) Mt trm (khng d on trc c) Mt nhn vin c c quan b tr cho i hc nc ngoi trong nhiu thng (on trc c) Mt k s gii b sang c quan (hoc Cng ty) khc (phi d on trc) Mt nhn vin no b tai nn giao thng, tai nn lao ng (khng d on c) My tnh b virus (phi lng trc)
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V d:
Gi thu vn phng tng (d on c) Th trng phi hp quc hi trong nhiu tun, khng ai k t trnh (d on c) Thay i b my lnh o, ban lnh o mi c th khng theo di d n t u, khng to iu kin thun li (d on c???) Hng ho, thit b v mun hn so vi d kin (d on c) Tin mt gi (d on trc) 49 v.v...
Ch ra cc loi ri ro c th (bc 2)
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s nh hng
kh nng xy ra
nh gi (phn tch) ri ro
Xc nh xc sut xut hin (thp, trung bnh, cao) i vi nhng e da M t tc hi n k thut, tin trin cng vic v ti chnh ca d n (c th quy ra thi gian v tin bc th cng tt)
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Cao
Thp
Trung (TB)
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R1 H
R2 H
R3 -
R4 -
R5 L
R6 -
B1
B2 B3 B4 B5 nh hng
H
?
?
?
?
-
M
L
L
H
L
-
M
L
L
L
3
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Phn tch
Qun l
Gim st
bc 1
lp thnh vn bn cc ri ro c th
bc 2
bc 3
bc 4
Lp biu phn tch ri ro Lit k cc gi thit Cn c s ng h ca nhng ngi chu tc ng ca ri ro. Vi nhng "s c" xy ra m khng d kin c, cn ghi li nht k
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Ngn nga (v d)
a ra o to b sung cho cc lp trnh vin ( gim ri ro tim nng) hoc Thu hp ng vi cc lp trnh vin c nhiu kinh nghim (loi b ri ro tim nng)
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Bo m rng chi ph s thp hn chi ph ca nguy c ri ro Bo m rng chi ph s thp hn chi ph ca hnh ng bt ng iu c bit quan trng l s khng xy ra hnh ng bt ng
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Phng nga hn l cha tr nh gi ri ro theo thi k trong sut vng i ca d n Kt hp cht ch mt quy trnh lin tc v xc nh ri ro, phn tch, qun l v r xt Khng i qu gii hn v kt thc khng chnh xc! Mc hp l ca qun l ri ro chun s khng tn nhng n lc v l.
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Cn ghi li nht k
M t quan trng Ngi chu trch nhim Ngy gii quyt
[4]
[1]
[2]
[3]
M t, thut li s c Tm quan trng ca s c. Tn ngi gii quyt s c. Thi gian vn c hay s c gii quyt.
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Bng Cng Vic cha c thng tin gip PM lp k hoch, t chc, kim sot v kt thc d n ca mnh mt cch hiu qu. Cng c chnh gip bn hon thnh iu ny l Lch biu v tin thc hin d n.
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Mc ch ca lch biu
Cho bit trt t thc hin cng vic Cho bit ngy bt u, kt thc cng vic Lm c s qun l v kim sot tin p t mt k lut ln d n Tng cng thc tp th Th hin dng ti nguyn tng giai on Cho php xc nh cng vic ch cht / khng ch cht
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Li bing (Cch khc phc: Bt phi lm) Thiu k nng, khng c hun luyn (Cch khc phc: bt i hc) Thiu thi gian (Cch khc phc: nhn thc c tt yu) Thiu s hp tc, khng ly c thng tin t ngi khc. (khc phc: thuyt phc,...) Khng nm c mc ch, mc tiu v cc yu cu ca d n
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Sn phm bn giao
nh ngha k hoch
Xc nh cc nhim v ph thuc
Cng vic g cn hon thnh trc khi nhim v ny c th bt u? Nhng nhim v g c th c thc hin khi cng vic ny kt thc? Gim ti a mt chui di cc nhim v ph thuc Thc hin cc nhim v song song vi nhau khi c th Xem xt nhng khong cch Xem xt s chng cho Chuyn cc thng tin ph thuc vo mt cng c lp k hoch
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Gim ti a thi gian b ph Tn dng ti a cc ngun Dn xp ch tha v ch thiu ca cc ngun Xem xt cc hn ch ca:
L mt quy trnh lp li
thi gian biu ca quy trnh r xt thi gian biu sa thi gian biu lp li thi gian biu
R xt lch trnh
R xt li s h tr
Xem xt
tng cc mc ngun gim bt cc nhim v ph thuc, tc l tin hnh ng thi nhiu hn cc nhim v
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nh gi lch trnh
Mt k hoch lm vic tt xc nh c cc mc tiu v phm vi ca cng vic N xc nh s n lc, ngun v lch trnh s p ng nhu cu ca tng mc tiu N rt thc t v bao gm phn d phng N s dng cc ngun hiu qu v hp l N thit lp mt tiu chun kim tra tin trnh cng vic N rt d duy tr v lun sn c nhiu thng tin
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Biu mng PERT (Program Evaluation and Review Technique) hay Phng php ng ti hn (Critical Path Method- CPM) S thanh GANTT hin c s dng rng ri. Sn phm MS Project
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L phng php truyn thng. S dng cc k hiu v m t bng li. Nt biu din cho mt mc s kin (bt u hay hon thnh mt cng vic). Mt nt cha mt m s duy nht. Mi tn ni hai nt biu din cho mt hot ng (v d: hot ng "Thc hin cng vic A"). Pha trn mi tn m t v hot ng ny. Cui mi tn l 1 cp s S-F (Start-Finish)
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V d
bt u 2,10 Thc hin J 8 Thc hin I 9 Thc hin K Kt thc 11,17
1,1
2,3
4,6
7,9
10,15
17,18
19,20
Thc hin A
Thc hin D
Thc hin F
ng gng
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Hp ch nht: biu th cho mt cng vic Gc trn bn tri: ngy Bt u Sm (ES) v Kt thc Sm (EF) Gc trn bn phi: ngy Bt u Mun (LS) v ngy Kt thc Mun (LF) Gc di bn tri: m s ca cng vic Gc di bn phi: thi gian thc hin Gia hp: m t cng vic (ng t) Mi tn: th hin th t cng vic: F-S, S-S, F-F
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4,5
4,5 F-S
V d
1,1 1,1 2,3
F-S
Thc hin C
500
2 ngy
2,3
6,7
6,7
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BS (bt u sm- Early Start): thi gian sm nht c th bt u cng vic KS (kt thc sm - Early Finish): thi gian sm nht c th kt thc cng vic BM (bt u mun - Late Start): thi gian mun nht c th bt u cng vic KM (kt thc mun - Late Finish): thi gian mun nht c th kt thc cng vic
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C 3 loi ti nguyn: lao ng, trang thit b, vt t. u tin cho cc cng vic trn ng gng. u tin cho cng vic phc tp trong nhng cng vic cng c th gin
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Ngun ca d n l nhng g?
Con ngi - l nhng ngi c la chn cho i d n. H th hin cc kinh nghim v k nng sn sng hon thnh mc tiu. Thit b - Thit b cn thit cho d n. N c th bao gm t nhng thit b ln n my tnh v nhng cng c kim tra c bit. Vn phng phm - l nhng dng cn thit cho d n. N c th bao gm nhng th t giy v bt ch n a mm v cc vt khc. Ti chnh - cc ngun ti chnh l tin la v cc cam kt cn thit thu c khi cn thit, ngun thu nhp ca d n. 76
hnh ti nguyn
Trc nm ngang: Trc thi gian (ngy, tun, thng, v.v...) Trc thng ng: Thi gian tch lu (gi) (Cummulative Time) ng ngang: Thi gian tch lu m mt nhn vin s lm vic trong mi thi khong trn trc X.
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V d
16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 Thi gian tch lu (gi) 8 7 6
5
4 3 2 1
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
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Ch dng cao: nhn vin lm vic nhiu gi Ch thp xung: nhn vin lm vic t gi (c thi gian ri) hnh khng bng phng => Chng t phn phi lao ng khng u hnh c 1 s ch dng cao => Chng t PM ph thuc vo 1 vi nhn vin gii
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ngha ca hnh
Nu buc phi chp nhn mt hnh khng bng phng => Phi c cch qun l: Ti nhng ch dng cao, mi thm ngi ngoi vo lm trnh qu ti cho anh em trong nhm Tp trung n lc iu hnh ti nhng ch dng cao Ti nhng ch thp/trng: tranh th cho anh em i hc, khuyn khch ngh php, hoc b tr gip cho nhng ngi khc ang lm cc cng vic cng thng
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8. Tnh chi ph
Tr cng lao ng (phn ln) Hun luyn, hng dn anh em My mc, trang thit b lm vic i li, trao i Tin nghi lm vic: Nh, bn gh, Vn phng phm. Thi gian Thng tin
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Chi ph c tnh, Chi ph ngn sch, Chi ph thc t, Chi ph c lng khi hon tt
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c tnh trc khi d n bt u. Khon tin d kin cho mi cng vic Cch tnh Lp bng tnh chi ph (Nn dng EXCEL) Chi ph khc: Tin nghi Thng tin i li v.v.....
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V d
S hiu cng vic M t cng vic Tin cng, tin lng Thit b Vn phn g phm Thit b, ng/ vt liu Hun luyn Khc Tng
Tng
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Lp bng theo di chi tiu thc t, c cp nht lin tc Pht sinh trong thc t thc hin d n. Bit c tnh trng chi tiu cho mi cng vic: lm chi (overrun) hoc chi cn d (underrun)
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Bng theo di c dng sau: Nu lm chi v chi cn d l nh: bnh thng Nu lm chi v chi cn d l ln: phi tm nguyn nhn V d v cc nguyn nhn tiu cc ca s tin chi cha ht: c lng sai, cht lng cng vic km, lm u, ...
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V d
S M t hiu cng cng vic vic ( 1) (2) c tnh Ngn sch c duyt (4) % c Thc Lm Tng hon php chi chi/chi thnh chi (today cn (today) (today) ) d (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (4)x(5) (7)-(6) (4)+(8) 100% 4,650 5,000 350 5,000 75% 2,962 4,000 1,038 4,988 60% 682 1,200 518 1,655 3,482 11,776 3,000 -482 13,200 1,424 5,322 16,965
(3)
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Tnh ton tin tiu v tin cn phi tip tc tiu, ti mi thi im gia chng ca d n. c tnh s tin phi chi khi hon thnh 100% cng vic, theo tc thc chi. Chnh l ct (9) trong bng trn. Dng tng di cng phn nh ton b d n
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D phng
m bo an ton cho kinh ph. Thng thng: t 5% - 7% tng kinh ph d kin Kinh ph d kin c th dng vo bt k vic g m PM thy l cn thit (trong phm vi cho php).
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Kt lun
Sau khi xc nh c mc ch, cch tt nht thc hin c cc mc tiu l to ra cu trc phn vic, xy dng cc c
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