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Section 7.1 How Likely Are the Possible Values of a Statistic? The Sampling Distribution
Learning Objectives
1. Statistic vs. Parameter
2. Sampling Distributions
3. Mean and Standard Deviation of the
Sampling Distribution of a Proportion 4. Standard Error 5. Sampling Distribution Example 6. Population, Data, and Sampling Distributions
data such as a sample proportion or sample mean A parameter is a numerical summary of a population such as a population proportion or population mean. In practice, we seldom know the values of parameters. Parameters are estimated using sample data. We use statistics to estimate parameters.
Prior to counting the votes, the proportion in favor of recalling Governor Gray Davis was an unknown parameter.
An exit poll of 3160 voters reported that the sample proportion in favor of a recall was 0.54. If a different random sample of about 3000 voters were selected, a different sample proportion would occur.
The sampling distribution of the sample proportion shows all possible values and the probabilities for those values.
probability distribution that specifies probabilities for the possible values the statistic can take. Sampling distributions describe the variability that occurs from study to study using statistics to estimate population parameters Sampling distributions help to predict how close a statistic falls to the parameter it estimates
population with proportion p of outcomes in a particular category, the sampling distribution of the proportion of the sample in that category has
sampling distribution from the standard deviation of an ordinary probability distribution, we refer to it as a standard error.
reelection of Schwarzenegger was 0.50, would it have been unlikely to observe the exit-poll sample proportion of 0.565? Based on your answer, would you be willing to predict that Schwarzenegger would win the election?
Find the estimate of the population proportion and the standard error:
standard errors from the expected value of 0.50. The sample proportion of 0.565 voting for reelection of Schwarzenegger would be very unlikely if the population proportion were p = 0.50 or p < 0.50
Values of its parameters are usually unknown. Theyre what wed like to learn about.
the distribution we actually see in practice. Its described by statistics With random sampling, the larger the sample size n, the more closely the data distribution resembles the population distribution
statistic. With random sampling, the sampling distribution provides probabilities for all the possible values of the statistic. The sampling distribution provides the key for telling us how close a sample statistic falls to the corresponding unknown parameter. Its standard deviation is called the standard error.
67% (895) voted for Clinton 33% (441) voted for Spencer 68% voted for Clinton 32% voted for Spencer
of the x vote variable, 32% of which are 0 and 68% of which are 1. The data distribution is the 1336 values of the x vote for the exit poll, 33% of which are 0 and 67% of which are 1. The sampling distribution of the sample proportion is approximately a normal distribution with p=0.68 and 0.68(1 0.68) /1336 0.013 Only the sampling distribution is bell-shaped; the others are discrete and concentrated at the two values 0 and 1
Learning Objectives
1. The Sampling Distribution of the Sample
Mean 2. Effect of n on the Standard Error 3. Central Limit Theorem (CLT) 4. Calculating Probabilities of Sample Means
and standard deviation , the sampling distribution of the sample mean has:
Center described by the mean (the same as the mean of the population). Spread described by the standard error, which equals the population standard deviation divided by the square root of the sample size: n standard error of x
day to day.
The sales figures fluctuate around a mean
= $900 with a standard deviation = $300. What are the center and spread of the sampling distribution?
$900
300 standard error 113 7
mechanism for understanding how much variability to expect in sample statistics just by chance. The standard error of the sample mean = n As the sample size n increases, the denominator increases, so the standard error decreases. With larger samples, the sample mean is more likely to fall closer to the population mean.
of the sample mean relate with respect to shape, center, and spread to the probability distribution from which the samples were taken?
size n, the sampling distribution of the sample mean is approximately a normal distribution. This result applies no matter what the shape of the probability distribution from which the samples are taken.
more of a bell shape as the random sample size n increases. The more skewed the population distribution, the larger n must be before the shape of the sampling distribution is close to normal. In practice, the sampling distribution is usually close to normal when the sample size n is at least about 30. If the population distribution is approximately normal, then the sampling distribution is approximately normal for all sample sizes.
approximately normal even if the population distribution is not. This enables us to make inferences about population means regardless of the shape of the population distribution.
distributed with a mean of 1.1 lbs and a standard deviation ()=0.20. What is the probability that the mean of a random sample of 5 bottles will be greater than 0.99 lbs?
Calculate the mean and standard error for the sampling distribution of a random sample of 5 milk bottles By the CLT, x is approximately normal with mean=1.1 and standard error = 0.2 5 =0.0894
distribution with a mean () of $25 and = $20. What is the probability that the mean of a random sample of 40 stocks will be less than $20?
Calculate the mean and standard error for the sampling distribution of a random sample of 40 stocks x is approximately normal with mean=25 By the CLT, and standard error = 20 40 =3.1623
20 ) .06 40
have a mean of $920 and a standard deviation of $870. Suppose that the next 100 claims can be regarded as a random sample from the long-run claims process. What is the probability that the average of the 100 claims is larger than $900?
.1 invnorm(.9,8.1, ) 8.16 5
.1 invnorm(.05,8.1, ) 8.03 5
Learning Objectives
1. Using the CLT to Make Inferences
When the sampling distribution of the sample mean is approximately normal, x falls within 2 standard errors of with probability close to 0.95 and almost certainly falls within 3 standard errors of . For large n, the sampling distribution of x is approximately normal no matter what the shape of the underlying population distribution.
In practice, these parameter values are unknown. Inference methods use standard errors that substitute sample values for the parameters in the exact formulas above
sampling distribution for the number of successes in n independent trials In practice, the sample proportion of successes is the statistic usually reported Since the sample proportion is simply the number of successes divided by the number of trials, the formulas for the mean and standard deviation of the sampling distribution of the proportion of successes are the formulas for the mean and standard deviation of the number of successes divided by n.
probability p of success for each, the sampling distribution of the proportion of successes has
p(1 p) n These values can be found by taking the mean np and the standard deviation np(1 p) for the binomial distribution of the number of successes and dividing n by