Cho mng C Gio v cc bn n vi bi trnh by

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Khng Hong Ti Chnh

I. KHNG HONG TI CHNH (KHTC) [Khng hong ti chnh]

NI DUNG TRNH BY

I. Khng hong ti chnh

II. Phn tch nguyn nhn cuc khng hong N 1997

III. So snh KH N 1997 v KH ti chnh M 2008

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Khng Hong Ti Chnh

I. KHNG HONG TI CHNH (KHTC)

Khng hong ti chnh l s tht bi ca mt hay mt s nhn t ca nn kinh t trong vic p ng y ngha v, bn phn ti chnh ca mnh

Cc NHTM khng hon tr c cc khon tin gi ca ngui gi tin

Cc KH vay vn, gm c KH c xp loi A cng khng th hon tr y cc khon vay cho ngn hng Chnh ph t b ch t gi hi oi c nh

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Khng Hong Ti Chnh

I. KHNG HONG TI CHNH (KHTC)

Khng hong ngn hng Khng hong n quc gia Khng hong tin t Khng hong th trng ti chnh Khng hong cn cn thanh ton quc t (Cn cn thanh ton vng lai, cn cn vn) Khng hong kh nng thanh khon Khng hong ngn sch nh nc

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Khng Hong Ti Chnh

I. KHNG HONG TI CHNH (KHTC)

M HNH KHNG HONG TH H TH NHT Nm 1979: P.Krugman khi xng.

M HNH TH H TH HAI
Nm 1986: Obstfeld pht trin - nhn mnh:

M HNH TH H TH BA (Krugman 1998)

u t qu mc Thi phng gi ti sn
phn t c bn ca chu k bong bng
[do nhng m bo ngm v ri ro o c]

Flood, Garber m rng pht trin

Gii thch khng hong ti khon vng lai

+ L loi khng hong t pht

+ Xy ra c nhng nc c nn ti chnh v kinh t v m vo loi hi yu.

v trn th trng ti chnh

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I. KHNG HONG TI CHNH (KHTC)

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2 3

Tnh trng ti t ca ton b b my ti chnh-tn dng quc gia S ph v ti chnh nh nc, h thng thanh ton

S ph sn cc nh ch ti chnh trung gian

Ph gi ng ni t, p lc lm pht

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Khng Hong Ti Chnh

NI DUNG TRNH BY

I. Khng hong ti chnh

II. Phn tch nguyn nhn cuc khng hong N 1997

III. So snh KH N 1997 v KH ti chnh M 2008

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Khng Hong Ti Chnh

1. GII THIU CHUNG

Khng hong ti chnh chu : Bt u t thng 7/1997 Thi Lan + Cc th trng chng khon + Trung tm tin t ln + Gi c ca nhng ti sn khc vi nc chu (bao gm "nhng con Rng chu ") Cn c gi l : Khng hong tin t chu .

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Khng Hong Ti Chnh

NGUYN NHN
Nng lc x l khng hong yu km Tn cng u c v rt vn ng lot Nhng thay i bt li ca kinh t th gii Cc dng vn nc ngai ko vo Nn tng kinh t v m yu km

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Nn tng kinh t v m yu km

Va c nh gi tr ng tin ca mnh vo USD, va cho php t do lu chuyn vn (t do ha ti khon vn). Cc nc thi hnh ch t gi khng linh hot thi hnh cc chnh sch v m km hiu qu. Thm ht ti khon vng lai dn n tnh trng thiu n nc ngoi.

Qun l km lung vn t nhn ln vo trong nc,vi vic cho vay nhiu cho cc khu vc phi sn xut.
Cc th trng ti chnh d v do tnh trng khng minh bch, khng thc hin cc tiu chun phng nga, cng tc gim st v qun l km. Vic phn b li ch pht trin khng ng u cho cc tng lp nhn dn, c s h tng kinh t khng vng chc, thm vo sc mua ca ngi dn cha cao
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Cc dng vn nc ngoi ko vo

Nh u t cc trung tm Tin T ca Th Gii

Chuyn vn u t ra nc ngoi

Thay i danh mc ti sn ca mnh

Cc nc chu : Thc hin chnh sch t do ha ti khon vn. Li sut cc nc chu cao hn cc nc pht trin

Cc dng vn quc t t chy vo cc nc chu

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Cc dng vn nc ngoi ko vo

Cc ngn hng bt Cc cng ty Chnh ph xc tin u t v bo h ngm cho cc th ch ti chnh chu bt chp mo him i vay ngn hng chp mo him i vay nc ngoi

(N ngn hn,
khng t bo him ri ro)

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Nhng thay i bt li ca kinh t th gii Xut khu Nht Bn b tr tr t u thp nin 1990 + Nm 1994: Nhn dn t c nh gi thp so vi USD HXK ca Trung Quc r hn so vi HXK cng loi ca N

+ .... u nhng nm 1990: nn kinh t ca M ang khi phc li sau tnh trng suy thoi
Hp dn nhng lung vn u t ngn hn thng qua li sut ngn hn cao v lm tng gi ng USD ng tin ca cc nc ng Nam c neo vo USD Xut khu ca cc nc ny tr nn km cnh tranh T u nm 1996, tng trng trong xut khu ca N gim xung nhanh chng, lm suy yu ti khon vng lai ca h.

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Tn cng u c v rt vn ng lot

L nguyn nhn trc tip ca khng hong ti chnh N nm 1997

Pht hin thy nhng im yu cht ngi trong nn kinh t ca cc nc chu

Mt s th ch u c v m tin hnh tn cng tin t chu

Cc nh u t nc ngoi ng lot rt vn ra

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Nng lc x l khng hong yu km Khi mi b tn cng tin t, cc nc chu : C sc bo v t gi: Cn kit d tr ngoi hi nh nc Tn cng u c thm ko di. Lp tc th ni ng tin ca mnh

Ngy 25/7/1997, Hi ngh ASEAN ln th 30 (Subang Jaya, Malaysia) nu r mi quan ngi su sc v ku gi cc nc ASEAN cn hp tc cht ch hn nhm bo v v tng cng li ch ca ASEAN trong giai on ny. Cng ngy, cc Ngn hng TW ca hu ht cc nc chu tc ng ca khng hong gp nhau ti Thng Hi trong Hi ngh cp cao ng Thi Bnh dng EMEAP, v tht bi trong vic a ra mt bin php dn xp cho vay mi

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Nng lc x l khng hong yu km

Trc , ngy 17/3/1996, B trng Ti chnh ca cc nc ny cng tham d Hi ngh b trng ti chnh APEC ln th 3 (Kyoto, Nht Bn): Cc bn khng th nhn i c Qu ti chnh phc v cho Hip nh chung v cho vay v c ch ti chnh trong tnh trng khn cp. Tht bi trong vic xy dng nng lc ph hp kp thi Tht bi trong vic ngn chn s li ko tin t.

Mt s nh kinh t li ch trch chnh sch ti chnh tht cht ca IMF c p dng cc nc xy ra khng hong cng lm cho khng hong thm trm trng.

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NI DUNG TRNH BY

I. Khng hong ti chnh

II. Phn tch nguyn nhn cuc khng hong N 1997

III. So snh KH N 1997 v KH ti chnh M 2008

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1. Nhng nt chung tiu biu

Khng hong ti chnh ton cu 2008-2009 Bao gm: + s v hng lot h thng ngn hng, + tnh trng i tn dng, + tnh trng st gi chng khon + mt gi tin t quy m ln nhiu nc trn th gii C ngun gc t khng hong ti chnh Hoa K nh hng nghim trng ti khu vc sn xut thc. Dn ti suy thoi kinh t nhiu nc

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2) Nhng nt TNG NG gia 2 cuc khng hong:

Xy ra do bong bng kinh t v bng n tn dng.

Ngn hng

cho vay qu mc khng thu hi c

t l n qu khng th thanh ton hn cao cc ngha v n hn

Khng hong

+ Chnh sch tin t ni lng + T do ha ngun vn

Tnh thanh khon ton cu cao qu mc.

Ngn sch thm ht nng v ko di trong khi cc ngun b p thm ht b hn ch v khng th lm dng hn na

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2) Nhng nt TNG NG gia 2 cuc khng hong:

+ s ph v ca ti chnh nh nc, h thng thanh khon

Biu hin

+ ph gi ni t + lm pht

+ ....
Hu qu: nhiu ngn hng buc phi ng ca

Buc chnh ph cc nc phi can thip mnh tay vc dy cc ngn hng T l n cng tng cao, nn kinh t i xung, chi tiu ca chnh ph tng cao k lc.
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2) Nhng im KHC NHAU gia 2 cuc khng hong:

Cuc KHTC N 1997

Cuc KHTC M 2008

Nguyn nhn

+ C nm nguyn nhn Bong bng nh t & gim st + Nguyn nhn trc tip l nhng ti chnh thiu hon thin Hoa cuc tn cng u c v rt vn K. ng lot + Bt ngun t Thi Lan ri lan sang cc nc khc trong khu vc chu nhng Vit Nam khng b nh hng + Gp phn dn ti KHTC Nga v KHTC Brasil + Mt s nc khng b khng hong, nhng kinh t cng chu nh hng xu do xut khu gim v do FDI vo gim + Bt ngun t Hoa K, sau lan ra ton cu, mnh nht chu u. + Vit Nam b nh hng khng nh.

Phm vi nh hng

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2) Nhng im KHC NHAU gia 2 cuc khng hong:

Cuc KHTC N 1997

Cuc KHTC M 2008

Hu qu

+ Gy ra nhng nh hng v m + Hng lot h thng ngn hng nghim trng, bao gm mt gi tin & cc thng hiu ni ting trn t, sp th trng chng khon, ton th gii b ph sn hoc b gim gi ti sn mt s nc chu . mua li + Nhiu doanh nghip b ph sn + Th trng chng khong cc + Hng triu ngi b y xung nc st gi ln lch s, di ngng ngho (1997-1998) + Th trng tin t nhiu nc + Chu nh hng nng n nht b mt gi, dn ti suy thoi kinh l Indonesia, Hn Quc, Thi Lan t + nh hng lu di v nghim trng l GDP v GNP bnh qun u ngi tnh bng USD theo sc mua tng ng gim i

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MT S BIN PHP KHI PHC NN KINH T SAU KHNG HONG

i mi phng php qun l kinh t v m Ci cch khu vc ti chnh Ci t cch thc qun l ca khu vc x nghip Ci cch cc th trng

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MT S BI HC RT RA T HAI CUC KHNG HONG

Nhn thc r hn s cn thit phi c mt h thng ti chnh - ngn hng vng mnh, minh bch.Thi thc Qu Tin t Quc t v Ngn hng Thanh ton Quc t i mi cc quy ch v ngn hng v cc t chc tn dng ni chung. Nhiu chnh ph ban hnh nhng quy ch nhm iu tit cc dng vn u t v vn vay t nc ngoi Nhng tha thun cp khu vc nhm pht trin mt h thng phng nga khng hong ti din c thc y chu , v d nh Sng kin Chiang Mai, Tin trnh nh gi v i thoi Kinh t ASEAN+3, Sng kin Th trng Tri phiu Chu , C nhiu n lc nhm a ra mt m hnh mi v khng hong tin t, chng hn nh m hnh phng php tip cn bng cn i ti sn, l thuyt bong bng, l thuyt v ngun gc khng hong t chnh sch ti chnh v chnh sch tin t Cng tc qun l kinh t v m ng n l thit yu. Cn theo ui chnh sch tin t v chnh sch ngn sch thn trng mt cch minh bch v c th d on c
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